Virus In Training


wordpress.com one million blog mark at may 10th by mozey
April 10, 2007, 11:03 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , ,

As of today, April 10th, around noonish GMT. There are 851,462 wordpress blogs. Meaning, we need 148,538 more blogs to reach the 1 MILLION blog mark. In this post i will attempt to do a half a55ed stab to guess as to when this will take place.

Blog creation and deletion per day against time should be the two variables we need, both could be found here. Naturally, i’m going to base my estimate based on today’s graphs:

blog deletionblogstats

Now, i’m too lazy to actually work out best fit line and estimate the way the function grows and then integrate it with somewhat of a sharp confidence intervals, SO i’m just going to draw how i THINK these graphs will look like in the future, get some average points on times that i picked out of a hat!, and i get this:

prediction of blog deletionblog growth

OKAY, doing a little bit of math and we’ll get our answer.

Days left for 1 million blog mark = average number of sign-ups a day – average number of deletion a day / 148538

Dayts left for 1 million blog mark is = 148538 / (3963 – 280) = 40 days (after rounding down from 40.331)

Which means that on may 10th of 2007, wordpress.com’s blog count will be one MILLION blog

I CANNOT START describing how horried the math that i just did is!, some of you are thanking your dear lord that i’m not doing this for living :) BUT COMMON, there is’nt much to do around the office today, and i was reminiscing about first year math!.

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[...] Blogs on WordPress.com: One million blogs hosted by WordPress.com is just around the corner. Virus in Training has estimated May 10 as the day WordPress.com will reach the one million mark. Any other bids? [...]

Pingback by WordPress Wednesday News: Security Release, Hot Tips for WordPress Bloggers, and a WordPress Plugin for Your Next of Kin at The Blog Herald

Cool!

Comment by Matt

[...] Virus in Training ha fatto qualche calcolo per cercare di capire quando WordPress.com raggiungerĂ  quota 1 milione di blog, secondo i suoi calcoli (ottenuti spulciando le statistiche dei blog creati e quelli cancellati)il giorno previsto dovrebbe essere il 10 maggio, ad oggi comunque i blog creati sono 875.000. [...]

Pingback by Le ultime notizie dal mondo Wordpress - 18/04/07 | MondoBlog

[...] Blogs on WordPress.com: One million blogs hosted by WordPress.com is just around the corner. Virus in Training has estimated May 10 as the day WordPress.com will reach the one million mark. Any other bids? [...]

Pingback by WordPress Wednesday News: WordPress 2.2 Due Monday, Sponsored WordPress Themes, WordPress.com Splog Fighter, and More at The Blog Herald

[...] a net increase of about 3,700 new blogs a day (new signups minus blog deletions), that means that any day now, wordpress.com will host over 1 million [...]

Pingback by The WordPress Podcast » Episode 23: WordPress 2.2 delayed, GSoC workers, Aaron Brazell

[...] a net increase of about 3,700 new blogs a day (new signups minus blog deletions), that means that any day now, wordpress.com will host over 1 million [...]

Pingback by WordPress.com Readching 1 million users » D’ Technology Weblog: Technology News & Reviews

[...] blogs on WordPRess.com with one million going to turn over any time. Do you have any predictions? Virus in Training has estimated May 10. Any other bids? [...]

Pingback by WordPress Wednesday News: 4 Million Themes Downloaded, WordPress 2.2 Delayed, and Tons of New Fun on WordPress.com at The Blog Herald

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