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As of today, April 10th, around noonish GMT. There are 851,462 wordpress blogs. Meaning, we need 148,538 more blogs to reach the 1 MILLION blog mark. In this post i will attempt to do a half a55ed stab to guess as to when this will take place.
Blog creation and deletion per day against time should be the two variables we need, both could be found here. Naturally, i’m going to base my estimate based on today’s graphs:
Now, i’m too lazy to actually work out best fit line and estimate the way the function grows and then integrate it with somewhat of a sharp confidence intervals, SO i’m just going to draw how i THINK these graphs will look like in the future, get some average points on times that i picked out of a hat!, and i get this:
OKAY, doing a little bit of math and we’ll get our answer.
Days left for 1 million blog mark = average number of sign-ups a day – average number of deletion a day / 148538
Dayts left for 1 million blog mark is = 148538 / (3963 – 280) = 40 days (after rounding down from 40.331)
Which means that on may 10th of 2007, wordpress.com’s blog count will be one MILLION blog
I CANNOT START describing how horried the math that i just did is!, some of you are thanking your dear lord that i’m not doing this for living 🙂 BUT COMMON, there is’nt much to do around the office today, and i was reminiscing about first year math!.
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